Oscar Predictions '07

[allizon]

(Apologies to those of you who will be getting this same entry via the allenholt feed -- someday very soon I hope to get the cross-posting-to-LJ issues figured out so no one will ever miss anything I write again ever.)

I known I've been away for awhile — I've been drowning in work and too tired to write when I get home, so the poor site here has been suffering.  And it's been killing me:  I totally missed writing about the Oscar nominations (I didn't even know they were happening until after they'd happened, and that never happens), totally missed writing about the Grammys (hooray Dixie Chicks, though psst, Natalie:  a little humility never hurts), totally missed writing about whatever the hell is happening to Britney Spears (is there anyone who cares about this girl enough to help get her shit together?).  But the Oscars are Sunday night, and I couldn't let them pass without offering My Official Predictions for this year's awards.

My regular Oscar-predicting disclaimer applies:  what follows are not the movies or performances I think should win, but rather those I think will win.  As with every year since I became a parent, I've seen very few of the nominated films.  This year in particular it seems like there's a lot of smaller independent films nominated for major awards, and those usually prove even harder for me to see.  Maybe I'll write up my own awards soon based on the, what, 20 movies I saw from 2006, but for now, this is what you get.  (I'll say this as a preview of my awards:  you'll see a whole lot of The Prestige in there.)

Away we go:

Best Picture:  Babel.  I don't want this movie to win it because I've heard it's such a prime example of The Theatre of Look How Much Life Sucks, and I don't have much desire to see that kind of thing rewarded, well done or not.  None of this year's nominees scream Best Picture to me, honestly, but I suppose something's gotta win.  My preference would be Little Miss Sunshine (the anti-Babel -- life may suck, but you have to find the joy and beauty in it anyway), if only to see a comedy win Best Picture, which almost never happens; I really enjoyed The Departed, but I have trouble seeing what's essentially a high-class crime thriller winning the top prize.  Babel's the kind of Important Film which is constructed to win Oscars (ref. Crash, 2006), so I'd imagine it will, depressing a thought as it may be.

Best Actor:  Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland.  Every year, there's a shocking upset! in one of the major categories, and this year Best Actor feels like it's got the best shot at seeing a surprise winner.  For all of the talk about Whitaker's performance as Idi Amin in Scotland, it seems like the movie itself wasn't particularly well regarded; while I think he's still clearly the front-runner, I want to say right here that I won't be even a tiny bit shocked if Leonardo DiCaprio walks away with it.  While technically the award would be for Blood Diamond, DiCaprio's work in The Departed was also Oscar-worthy, so I can see Academy voters going the two-for-the-price-of-one route and giving the nod to Leo.

Best Actress:  Helen Mirren, The Queen.  If this award goes to anyone else, it'd go down as one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history. 

Best Supporting Actor:  Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children.  This one's my actual upset pick.  I know Eddie Murphy is considered the favorite here, but Hollywood loves comeback stories even more than it does wait-but-I-didn't-know-he-could-do-that stories.  Haley's out-of-nowhere performance was, so I've heard, devastating.  Plus, A) I can see voters not wanting to give the same movie both supporting actor awards (see the next paragraph) and B) I can't help but think all of those ads for Norbit can't be helping Murphy's Oscar caché (we're going to give him an Oscar?  Oh, nuh uh).  Sorry, Eddie; maybe now it'll be time to learn how to pick your roles better.

Best Supporting Actress:  Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls.  From all I've heard, the only crime if Hudson were to win this award would be that she didn't win Best Actress, instead.  I'm not necessarily big on musicals, but I want to see this movie because of all I've heard about Hudson's (and Murphy's) performance.  Upset potential exists for Babel's Rinko Kikuchi — never underestimate the awards-garnering power of portraying the handicapped.

Best Director:  Martin Scorcese, The Departed.  Ironically, Marty will finally win the award for the movie he probably least deserves it for.  That's not a knock on The Departed, which is a fantastic movie — it's just not Scorcese's best directorial job, especially given some of the movies for which he hasn't won.  This win will classify as much for a lifetime achievement award as a win for this particular movie — the Academy will finally be able to rectify the fact that they've given Clint Eastwood two of these and never even given Scorcese one.  (If, for some reason, Eastwood somehow pulls out a win here for Letters From Iwo Jima, I think Marty will be fully justified in jumping Clint on the way to the podium and pulling a Departed of his own on him.)

Best Original Screenplay:  Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine.  I believe this will be the only major award Sunshine gets; it seems like when the Academy falls in love with a little indie of this sort and lavishes it with bunches of nominations, they usually wind up giving it one award as a pat on the head, and frequently that award is for its screenplay.  (Lost In Translation, anyone?)  So this award will just have to do.  (I'd like to say here that I wish the Oscars would follow the pattern of the Screen Actors Guild awards and issue a Best Ensemble Acting award; I think it's quite likely Little Miss Sunshine, a movie in which there really isn't a lead actor, would have taken that one.)

Best Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed.   Eh, just a gut feeling, really.  None of the nominees jumps out at me as an obvious winner; I'm thinking it comes down to this or Little Children by Todd Field and Tom Perrotta.  I'll tell you this right now:  while you're watching the awards telecast, if you see The Departed win this award and Scorcese wins for Best Director and you've got money riding on it winning Best Picture — go change your bets fast if you still can.  No way does it win all three.

Best Animated Feature:  Cars.  I'm really torn here.  I thought Happy Feet was a better picture overall than Cars, but I'd imagine Cars is going to win — it's Pixar, and no Pixar movie released since they began this award has failed to win it. (OK, yes, that's only two movies, but still).   [EDIT: Nope, I'm wrong here.  As my friend qwrrty pointed out, Monsters Inc. lost to Shrek the first year this award was given out.  Pixar's not quite as infallible as I thought.  That'll learn me to rely on my memory instead of doing research.]  Plus, Cars has Paul Newman, so.  Either way, I'm not going to complain — both movies are certainly deserving.

Comments

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

I don't think Babel is going to take it. It's just too much like Crash, which only won last year. The Academy is going to feel like they already gave this movie the Best Picture award. My money is on The Departed. While I think Babel was a better picture than The Departed (or Crash for that matter), the big gangster picture feels like the more likely win.

I think Eddie Murphy is still the more likely win for Best Supporting Actor. He seems to have the momentum, and Jackie Earle Haley isn't enough of a comeback story -- people don't remember him well enough to realize that he's come back. :-) Also, there's so much to-do around Dreamgirls not getting the Best Picture nod that they're going to want to give it some consolation prizes, and I bet this is one.

Note that the year the Best Animated Film award was introduced, Monsters, Inc. lost to Shrek. So Pixar hasn't won it every year they've had a dog in the race. :-) But I agree that Cars is the likely win here.

[badlittlemonkey.livejournal.com]

I don't think Babel is going to take it. It's just too much like Crash, which only won last year. The Academy is going to feel like they already gave this movie the Best Picture award.

I sincerely hope you're right and I'm wrong. I'm still hurting over Crash's win last year -- that, to me, was one of the least-deserving Best Picture winners in quite a while. It felt more like a self-congratulatory bit of onanism than an actual reward for great filmmaking.

I think Eddie Murphy is still the more likely win for Best Supporting Actor. He seems to have the momentum, and Jackie Earle Haley isn't enough of a comeback story -- people don't remember him well enough to realize that he's come back.

That last point I'm certainly not going to argue. :)

My gut's telling me there's going to be an upset either here or in Best Actor; I think the pro-Dreamgirls contingent will be happy giving Supporting Actress to Jennifer Hudson. I'll say this: if Murphy gets this award early on in the telecast, that (to my gut) greatly increases the chances of Whitaker not taking Best Actor.

All of this, of course, is one of the joys of an Oscar season that's not dominated by one movie which is gonna win everything. :)

Note that the year the Best Animated Film award was introduced, Monsters, Inc. lost to Shrek. So Pixar hasn't won it every year they've had a dog in the race. :-) But I agree that Cars is the likely win here

Totally my bad -- that'll teach me to do my research instead of relying on memory. I knew Shrek won the first one, but for some reason I was thinking that was the year after Monsters Inc., meaning it didn't lose. Maybe the pro-Pixar part of my brain didn't want to admit that fact. I'll edit the original post. Thanks!

[keyne.livejournal.com]

Hey, you did pretty well!

[badlittlemonkey.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I did OK! Thanks! I just posted my post-Oscar wrapup, which should be coming through the feed into LJ-land in just a little while, or feel free to go read at my site. :)

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

Oops, I missed this:

I'll tell you this right now: while you're watching the awards telecast, if you see The Departed win this award and Scorcese wins for Best Director and you've got money riding on it winning Best Picture — go change your bets fast if you still can. No way does it win all three.

Boy howdy is that a bad bet. :-) This happened to Brokeback Mountain last year, to The Pianist in 2002, and to Traffic in 2000, but before that it hadn't happened for fifty years. The best picture often gets the best director award, and usually gets either the Best Director or Best Screenplay, but to take both Director and Screenplay and not the top spot? Hardly ever!

Anyway, like keyne said, you did do pretty well. And I think you were right with your "comeback" theory too -- we were just thinking of the wrong comeback actor :-) :-)

[badlittlemonkey.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I certainly screwed the pooch on that one. That right there's why I'm not a gambler. :)

I just posted my wrapup on my site; you were mentioned for pointing out my gross inaccuracy. Thanks! ;)